TO: Mayor and City Council
THROUGH: Krishna Namburi, City Manager
FROM: Brian D. Martin, PE, Public Works Director
Kristin Retherford, Community Planning and Development Director
SUBJECT:
title
Approval to submit the Salem-Keizer Regional Scenario Plan to the State Department of Land Conservation and Development as required by the State’s Climate Friendly and Equitable Community rules.
Ward(s): All Wards
Councilor(s): All Councilors
Neighborhood(s): All Neighborhoods
Result Area(s): Natural Environment Stewardship; Safe, Reliable and Efficient Infrastructure; Strong and Diverse Economy; Welcoming and Livable Community.
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SUMMARY:
summary
The City is required by State rules to develop a Regional Scenario Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by considering various land use and transportation alternatives and estimating the potential impacts of the selected alternatives on greenhouse gas emissions. The Regional Scenario Plan, developed jointly with the City of Keizer, Marion County, and the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), focuses on emissions from light vehicle travel and evaluates the degree to which a specific scenario will help meet the State’s climate pollution reduction targets. The attached Plan documents the work completed to meet the State requirements, including identification and description of the preferred scenario. The Plan also includes performance measures and targets that the City will be required to adopt into the Salem Transportation System Plan.
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ISSUE:
Shall City Council direct the City Manager to submit the attached Regional Scenario Plan for approval to the State Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD)?
RECOMMENDATION:
recommendation
Direct the City Manager to submit the attached Regional Scenario Plan for approval to the State Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
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FACTS AND FINDINGS:
The State’s Climate Friendly and Equitable Communities (CFEC) rules require cities and counties to update local land use and transportation plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promote equity. The rules specifically require the Salem-Keizer region to conduct regional scenario planning, which includes evaluating and determining what changes are needed to land use and transportation plans and programs to meet the State’s GHG reduction targets. Salem’s work to address this and other items relating to the CFEC rules is part of the Salem in Motion <https://www.cityofsalem.net/government/shaping-salem-s-future/salem-in-motion> project. Transportation Phase 1 of the Salem in Motion project addresses the required regional scenario planning.
That State mandated target GHG Goal for the Salem-Keizer region is a 20 percent reduction, per capita, in GHG emissions from light vehicles from 2005 levels by 2040 and a 30 percent reduction by 2050 and beyond. The Salem-Keizer Regional Scenario Plan (Attachment 1) results in a projected 32 percent reduction in per capita GHG emissions from light duty vehicles by 2050, thereby meeting the State’s target.
The Regional Scenario Plan represents a balanced approach to policy decisions, with an emphasis on future bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure improvements, increases in transit service, and new or increased programs to encourage people to walk, bike, ride the bus, or carpool. The City and its regional partners will be required to track progress toward meeting the GHG emissions target; this will be done through performance measures, which are described in detail later in this staff report.
Salem’s regional scenario planning partners include Marion County and the City of Keizer. Polk County and the City of Turner, based on the size of their respective populations within the urban area, requested and received exemptions from the State from participating in the regional scenario planning process.
Planning Process
The regional partners, including Salem, initiated this process in 2023 by submitting a work program to the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). This work program was shared with City Council on June 26, 2023 (File #23-195). The work program was subsequently approved by DLCD on August 17, 2023. The original deadline to submit the Regional Scenario Plan was December 31, 2024. That deadline was subsequently extended to December 31, 2025.
An advisory committee - the Regional Scenario Plan Advisory Committee - was formed to make key decisions during the scenario planning process. The committee consisted of three Salem representatives, two Keizer representatives, two Marion County representatives, and one representative from Cherriots. The committee operated on a consensus basis. Salem representatives included Mayor Julie Hoy (2025), Councilor Tigan (2025), Councilor Varney (2024 and 2025), Mayor Chris Hoy (2024), and Councilor Stapleton (2024).
The planning process was supported by a consultant team led by Parametrix, with funding provided by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT). The key steps followed to arrive at the final plan are described below.
1. Future Reference Scenario: Develop a future (2050) baseline scenario based on adopted plans and policies.
The future reference scenario reflects the region’s expected GHG emissions if the cities and county continue with business as usual. This scenario is projected to result in a 10 percent reduction in GHG emissions from light duty transportation vehicles.
2. Alternative Future Scenarios: Develop and test alternative future scenarios to evaluate how different policy choices impact Salem’s progress towards meeting GHG reduction targets.
The consultant team tested seven scenarios (including the Future Reference Scenario). The GHG reduction across the scenarios ranged from a low of 10% (reference scenario) to a high of 35.2%.
3. Preferred Scenario: Identify a preferred scenario that achieves GHG reduction targets.
The Regional Scenario Plan Advisory Committee endorsed the preferred scenario at its meeting on March 17, 2025. As mentioned earlier, the preferred scenario results in a projected 32 percent reduction in GHG emissions thereby achieving the state-required 30 percent reduction target for GHG emissions from light duty transportation vehicles.
4. Performance Measures and Targets: Develop performance measures and future year targets that align with the preferred scenario and achieve the regional GHG reduction target.
Performance measures and targets are required to track local jurisdiction progress toward meeting the GHG reduction goal.
5. Community Engagement: Conduct community engagement, with an emphasis on engaging traditionally underserved populations, throughout the process.
The project team sought input from the community to inform which policy choices would best meet the needs of the public. This engagement was done through a variety of forums, including in-person events, online information, surveys, and conversations held at various community venues. Public outreach is summarized in Appendix B of the attached Salem-Keizer Regional Scenario Plan.
Performance Measures and Targets
The Regional Scenario Plan includes regional and local performance measures designed to track progress towards meeting the GHG reduction target. (See Regional Scenario Plan, Section 6.) Performance targets are intentionally aspirational with the recognition that additional resources and actions will be required to achieve them. The Regional Scenario Plan Advisory Committee endorsed the performance measures and targets at its meeting on July 24, 2025. Several of the measures are regional in nature and rely on increases in transit service. The Salem-specific measures and targets are summarized below.
1. Parking (P) 1: Paid Street Parking
• Percentage of on-street parking stalls in Salem’s proposed primary Climate-Friendly Area that require payment. This area includes the downtown core and Capitol Mall area.
• Percentage of Paid On-Street Parking (2024) = 41 percent
• Target Value (2050) = 95 percent. Note that this 2050 target was achieved with the launch of downtown paid parking in 2025.
2. Active Transportation (AT) 1: Bike and Pedestrian Network
• Miles of bicycle and pedestrian facilities. The bicycle network is measured on all street classifications. The pedestrian network is measured on parkway, arterial and collector streets. Mileage is measured accounting for a single direction of travel.
• Existing Bicycle and Pedestrian Network = 300 miles
• Target Value (2050) = 638 miles
3. AT 2: Pedestrian Network in Underserved Neighborhoods
• Miles of pedestrian facilities in areas classified as “high disparity” by the ODOT Social Equity Index. (See Regional Scenario Plan, Figure 4.) The pedestrian network is measured on parkway, arterial and collector streets. Mileage is measured accounting for a single direction of travel.
• Existing Pedestrian Network in Underserved Neighborhoods = 24 miles
• Target Value (2050) = 52 miles
4. Land Use (LU) 1: Transit Access for New Housing - Core Transit Network
• Share of new housing units permitted within a half mile of the Cherriots Core Network. These are housing units that receive building permits; the Cherriots Core Network <https://www.cityofsalem.net/home/showpublisheddocument/5428/637852684124670000> is a set of transit corridors on which Cherriots has committed to maintaining and increasing bus service.
• Target Value (2050) = 50 percent of new units since 2025
5. LU 2: Transit Access for New Affordable Housing - Core Transit Network
• Share of new affordable housing units permitted within a half mile of Cherriots Core Network.
• Target Value (2050) = 60 percent of new affordable units since 2025
Next Steps
The City is required to submit the Regional Scenario Plan to the director of the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) for approval. The director of DLCD can either approve the plan or refer it to Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC). If referred, LCDC will hold a public hearing prior to either approving or remanding the Regional Scenario Plan.
Once the Regional Scenario Plan is approved by the State, the City will be required to amend its Comprehensive Plan, land use regulations, and Transportation System Plan to implement the measures contained in the Regional Scenario Plan. Any future amendments to Salem’s Comprehensive Plan, land use regulations, and Transportation System Plan must be consistent with the Regional Scenario Plan.
The CFEC rules specifically require Salem to adopt performance measures and targets into the Salem’s Transportation System Plan that align with preferred scenario from the Regional Scenario Plan. These measures and targets will be incorporated into the Salem Transportation System Plan through the Salem in Motion project as part of Transportation Phase 2. The Salem Transportation System Plan will prioritize projects that advance the City’s ability to achieve these targets.
Reporting Requirements
The CFEC rules require that the City report on progress to implement these measures at major reporting years per Oregon Administrative Rule 660-012-0900. Major reporting years coincide with the year in which the Metropolitan Transportation Plan is updated, which, for Salem-Keizer, is currently every four years. If the City has not achieved the target for one or more performance measure, the City will need to propose corrective actions to meet the target at the next major reporting period. Corrective actions could include but are not limited to, pursue additional revenue, modify City policies or regulations, or adjust the targets in response to factors outside the City’s control. Major reports and proposed corrective actions are subject to review and approval by DLCD.
BACKGROUND:
The Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) adopted administrative rules - CFEC rules - in 2022 that aim to reduce GHG emissions from transportation-related sources while increasing housing choices and creating more equitable outcomes for Oregonians. The CFEC rules came in response to Governor Kate Brown’s March 10, 2020, Executive Order 20-04, which directed State agencies to reduce climate pollution. The updated rules, adopted in 2022 and amended in 2023, are directed at communities in Oregon’s eight most populated areas.
Robert D. Chandler, PhD, PE
Assistant Public Works Director
Attachments:
1. Salem-Keizer Regional Scenario Plan, November 2025
2. Salem-Keizer Regional Scenario Plan Appendices